The one big ticket item couples can’t tick off that prevents them from having more children, if any , Australia

“It’s a contributing factor to family planning decisions. Cost of living has been an elevated concern, and it’s especially acute for those younger family households, that have recently formed in their late twenties, early thirties and so forth.”

He said the ultrasound data was a good leading indicator on the number of births as they are lagged.

“It basically helped providing us confidence that that was the lead that we’ve seen, but data also gives a few quarters of advanced perspective as to where we see that series potentially going.”

Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research demographer Dr Liz Allen said the cost of housing was a key barrier to family formation and size.

“Housing security, particularly homeownership, is on top of the checklist before they start a family and that is being delayed more and more,” Allen said, noting cost of living, including job security, climate change and gender equality as other barriers.

Allen noted that government departments were also looking to Medicare’s ultrasound services data as a more up-to-date statistic on where birth and fertility rates were headed but cautioned that not all ultrasounds are indicative of successful pregnancies.

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“We’re seeing the commencement of independence being pushed out until people are in their 40s at which point it’s almost too late to start a family … because our ability to have children is reduced.

“We’ve got this perfect storm of socioeconomic hurdles that young people are unable to clear.”

She said without major policy shifts that make housing more affordable, the country would continue to see a decline in the total fertility rate.

Impact Economics chief economist Dr Angela Jackson said unaffordable housing was compounding weak economic conditions that are well known to drive birth rates down.

“There is no doubt that housing affordability has clearly reduced in a generation and it’s a substantial cost in people’s budget, and it’s clearly having an impact,” Jackson said. “The recent impact would have to do with slowing economic growth as well as housing costs. Housing affordability is compounding falling birth rates.”

She said it was a bigger problem in the capitals, such as Sydney and Melbourne, where house prices are several times people’s income.

“There are bigger falls in birth rates in Sydney and Melbourne where we know housing costs are a bigger issue. You can’t afford family accommodation close to jobs in a capital city.

“They’re very difficult decisions when you’re trying to start a family because you can’t afford to buy anything suitable. It’s a lot more difficult decisions and tougher trade off than previous generations have faced.”